Economists and market strategists are anticipating further ripple effects globally from the Middle East conflict, watching to see if the situation draws in other countries with the potential to increasingly drive up oil prices and send capital flowing to safehavens.
Israel was preparing on Saturday to launch a ground assault in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, after telling Palestinians living in the territory to flee south. The Israeli national security adviser, meanwhile, warned Lebanese militant group Hezbollah not to start a war on a second front.
"It looks like we’re headed for a massive ground invasion of Gaza and a large-scale loss of life," said Ben Cahill, senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "Anytime you have a conflict of this scale, you will have a market reaction."
In the past week, concerns about the conflict have fed through to asset prices, contributing to weakness in stocks on Friday with the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 0.5%. Safehaven assets saw buying with gold up more than 3% on Friday and the U.S. dollar touching a one-week high. Oil prices leapt nearly 6% on Friday as investors assessed what the conflict could mean for supplies from nearby countries in the world's top oil producing region.
"If it looks like a broadening conflict, oil prices will rise further," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado.
An expanding conflict would also likely cause inflation and, as a byproduct, interest rates around the world to accelerate, said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.
However, while inflation and rates in other countries will likely rise in this worst-case scenario, the U.S. could be the exception as foreign investors pour capital into what they deem a safehaven during global conflict, Baumohl noted.
India’s economy will become carbon neutral by the year 2070, the country’s prime minster has announced at the COP26 climate crisis summit in Glasgow. The target date is two decades beyond what scientists say is needed to avert catastrophic climate impacts. India is the last of the world’s major carbon polluters to announce a net-zero target, with China saying it would reach that goal in 2060, and the United States and the European Union aiming for 2050.
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
A crucial U.N. conference heard calls on its first day for the world's major economies to keep their promises of financial help to address the climate crisis, while big polluters India and Brazil made new commitments to cut emissions. World leaders, environmental experts and activists all pleaded for decisive action to halt the global warming which threatens the future of the planet at the start of the two-week COP26 summit in the Scottish city of Glasgow on Monday. The task facing negotiators was made even more daunting by the failure of the Group of 20 major industrial nations to agree ambitious new commitments at the weekend.