The current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade, characterised by the brazen application by some of military power to pursue claims – evoking a ‘might is right’ approach – as well as the desire among like-minded democracies for stronger bilateral and multilateral defence ties in response. At the same time, governments are trying to balance appetite for advanced weapons with the need to rebuild industrial-scale ammunition production capacity. The demise of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty highlighted a lack of interest in arms control.

Moscow’s military actions have amplified concerns in other parts of the world, particularly the Indo-Pacific, that a militarily powerful neighbour may try to exert its will over others. In Asia, this has driven Japan and South Korea to seek closer defence ties, the Philippines to re-engage with the United States on military cooperation, Taiwan to bolster its defences, and Australia to embark on an unprecedented expansion of its naval capacity, most visibly through the Australia–United Kingdom–US AUKUS partnership with nuclear-powered submarines at its core. 

China is becoming more assertive, not just in its immediate vicinity. The country flew a high-altitude surveillance balloon over the US and deployed ships near American shores, while its maritime assets had tense encounters with Canadian and Philippine vessels. Beijing sustained its defence modernisation, while also stepping up diplomatic engagement, brokering an effort at detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel on 7 October using a combination of ground fighters, rocket fire and other tactics that killed around 1,200 civilians, and Tel Aviv’s assault on Gaza in the aftermath that caused mass civilian casualties have further upset the global security landscape. The fighting arrested efforts at improving relations between Israel and several Arab states and caused diplomatic rifts further afield. The fighting also exposed a potential overreliance by Israel on technology to monitor Hamas, which may have contributed to Tel Aviv not anticipating the attack.

Regional instability also affected other parts of the world. Africa suffered coups in Niger and Gabon, and military regimes now control a belt across the Sahel. The United Nations ended its Mali operations because of political pressure from the new regime, though violence in the country persisted.

All that happened as the costs to Russia of its ill-judged war crystallised during a second year of fighting. The Wagner Group’s attempted mutiny highlighted the internal fissures within Russia; Ukraine has gradually, even if only slowly, recaptured territory, though not as much as it – and its backers – hoped. At the same time, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been badly hit, and Moscow has had to adjust equipment plans to focus on the near-term fight.

Russia’s territorial ambitions also have spurred several governments in Europe to refresh their security thinking. Germany published a first national security strategy, and the UK issued an update to its Defence Command Paper. All made clear that national security is no longer an afterthought and that looming challenges require serious attention. They also highlighted, to different levels, that China is becoming an ever-greater security concern, matching, at least to some extent, Washington’s tone. China’s military developments were also a focus of Australia’s Defence Strategic Review.  

The result has been an uptick in defence outlays. Governments from Canberra to Washington to Oslo have also realised their ammunition stocks have fallen too low and the ability to restock needs fixing. A just-in-time mindset that has persisted for almost three decades is giving way to a just-in-case approach, though delivering on these ambitions is challenging.

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