Forced by the unprecedented isolation from the West, Russia has embarked on a course of outreach to the global South. South Asia is a region where Moscow has been a dormant player for a long time, showing little interest in developing ties with regional partners beyond India. However, this is now changing as South Asia is being reconsidered as a junction of Russian geostrategic and economic interests, so Moscow’s growing involvement in India’s immediate neighbourhood requires further examination.
The implications of war in Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had multiple effects on South Asian nations spanning from geopolitical to economic challenges. As a result, they have found themselves torn between the West and Russia, though generally steering a middle path. While India has been exemplary in walking a fine line, its neighbours in the region, being more vulnerable to external factors, have exhibited their neutrality in different ways.
Nepal has denounced Moscow’s ‘special military operation’ and has approved most of the UN resolutions against Russia.
Bangladesh has twice supported the United Nations (UN) resolutions condemning Russian actions in Ukraine and has been meticulous in following the Western sanctions against Russia. Nepal has denounced Moscow’s ‘special military operation’ and has approved most of the UN resolutions against Russia. Kathmandu was also forced to stop issuing labour permits to its citizens for Russia and Ukraine following reports of Nepali soldiers serving in both warring armies. Sri Lanka, albeit facing the dramatic impact of the war in Ukraine on its economy, has refused to take any sides. Pakistan’s approach to the conflict has been most controversial as compared to other regional states. Islamabad has consistently abstained on the issue at the global level in attempt to follow ‘strict neutrality’, but the Pakistani Army reportedly supplied ammunition to Ukraine.
While Russia has faced varying responses to its war in Ukraine throughout South Asia, it has recently stepped up its presence in the region, as evidenced from official visits and efforts to revive economic ties.
Political mechanisms
There were several high-level exchanges with South Asia in 2023, which hint at the countries of specific interest to Moscow. As India was presiding over the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in 2023, it became an important destination for Russian ministers and parliamentarians. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, for instance, visited India three times in 2023 and the Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, reciprocated with his five-day visit to Russia. In a first for any Russian foreign minister, Lavrov also visited Dhaka in September 2023, highlighting enduring ties and making an effort to take the cooperation with Bangladesh forward.
Russia’s Security Council Secretary, Nikolay Patrushev, visited Sri Lanka in December 2023 to hold meetings with the country’s leadership covering political, security, defence and economic issues. Security consultations between Moscow and Colombo have turned into a regular feature.
