Yet, little attention has been paid to South Korea’s offensive military strategy and its impact on the security dynamics of the Peninsula. 

In July 2023, the newly appointed defense minister Shin Won-sik summarized South Korea’s offensive strategy as “PISU: Punish Immediately, Strongly, and Until the end (즉각, 강력히, 끝까지 응징)”, if provoked by North Korea. South Korea’s offensive strategy aims to deter North Korea’s aggression, not to initiate an attack against North Korea. However, it is uncertain whether Pyongyang fully understands Seoul’s defensive intent as well as its firm resolve to counterattack. Similarly, it remains unclear how Seoul intends to manage the escalating risks exacerbated by its own offensive approach. To maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula, it is vital to understand the origin of South Korea’s offensive strategy, its intended effects, and dilemma. 

The Origin and the Logic of South Korea’s Offensive Military Doctrine 

As outlined in the 2022 defense white paper, the South Korean military has formulated a strategy known as the "three-axis system." It consists of (1) the "Kill Chain" platform, which involves preemptive strikes targeting North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities upon clear indicators of their intended use, (2) the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, and (3) the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) plan, which includes precision missile attacks or infiltration of special operation forces to eliminate the North Korean leadership. The three-axis system embodies South Korea's offensive posture, featuring preemptive and retaliatory strike capabilities.

South Korea's military strategy has become increasingly offensive over the past decade. In the 2012 defense white paper, preemptive or retaliatory strikes were not included as part of South Korea's military strategy. In February 2013, the Ministry of Defense introduced the "Kill Chain" strategy, marking a significant departure. Subsequently, the Park Geun-hye administration unveiled the KMPR strategy in September 2016. These offensive shifts caused concerns among scholars regarding legality. According to an Asan Institute report, while the Kill Chain strategy may meet the conditions of self-defense, such as the imminency of an enemy attack or proportionality of preemptive action (if the strike is limited to the launching point of the imminent attack), justifying the ‘massive retaliation’ aspect of KMPR strikes could be challenging due to its disproportionality.

Why so offensive? First and foremost, it reflects South Korea’s desperate need to deal with an increasingly nuclear-capable North Korea. South Korea represents one of few cases where a non-nuclear state has to rely on advanced conventional capabilities to deter a nuclear-armed adversary. South Korean strategists are concerned that Pyongyang may be emboldened to take military actions against South Korea whenever it deems necessary, due to its increasing confidence in nuclear deterrence against the United States and South Korea. Even worse, it cannot be ruled out that North Korea may use nuclear weapons first for coercive purposes. Therefore, South Korea needs to maximize its deterrence to make North Korean leaders think twice before taking such actions against South Korea.

South Korea’s offensive strategy aims to achieve this goal with two distinct approaches: automaticity and personalization of threat. First, the principle of PISU reflects South Korea’s resolve to counteract automatically. By publicly stating this policy, South Korea signals that it has “burned the bridges behind” and will retaliate without hesitation, if attacked by North Korea. Second, the threat of retaliation is personalized to target North Korean leaders, including Kim Jong-un. The former and current defense ministers have repeatedly emphasized that South Korea’s special operation forces are well-trained to infiltrate North Korea to assassinate its leadership. Once again, by publicly stating this policy, Seoul appears to signal a message, specifically tailored to North Korean leaders, like this: "You may succeed in destroying our cities and people with your nuclear weapons, but rest assured, we will find you and kill you.”

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