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3/7/2024 10:23:55 AM

How foreign policy might impact the outcome of the US election

In 1992, Bill Clinton’s political strategist James Carville quipped that the outcome of US elections was determined by ‘the economy, stupid’. Joe Biden must certainly hope that this remains true because, if so, he would almost certainly be a shoo-in for re-election in 2024.

The facts speak for themselves. Unemployment is at an all-time low, the US economy is growing by about 3 per cent per quarter, wages are going up, and the stock market is going through the roof. Meanwhile, interest rates, which have been at an all-time high for over two years, are finally predicted to come down. And to cap it off, of the top ten corporations in the world right now, eight just happen to be based in the US. As one pundit has put it, if the US was in an economic war with the rest of the world, it would be ‘winning’.

If polls are any kind of guide, the Biden team clearly has a lot of work to do.

But despite all this, Biden is still behind Trump in the polls. Of course, much can and will happen by November, and polls taken now may not be a great guide to how Americans will actually vote when presented with a simple but stark choice between Biden and Trump.

But if polls are any kind of guide, the Biden team clearly has a lot of work to do. A November 2023 poll put Trump ahead in five of the six battleground states (Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, though not Wisconsin), while a February poll conducted by NBC News showed that Biden’s approval rating had dropped to 37 per cent.

65% of Americans remember the economy under Trump as being good, according to a CBS poll.

Nor is the tide turning in Biden’s favour. If anything, quite the opposite seems to be happening. As Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research recently pointed out, ‘on every measure compared to 2020’ support for Biden has declined.

But why is this?

There are several common explanations. Among the most popular are Biden’s age and alleged memory loss (something he vehemently denies); his administration’s failure to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States (the number arriving has roughly doubled since 2020); and last but by no means least, the fact that even if the Dow Jones is on the up, many ordinary Americans are hurting. A recent CBS poll found that 65 per cent of Americans remember the economy under Trump as being good, but with only 38 per cent giving the same positive assessment of the current economy under Biden.

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