Courtesy WPR (World Politics Review)
Courtesy WPR (World Politics Review)

Myanmar and irregular warfare in a multipolar world

Evolving insurgent tactics in a world order characterised by multipolarity competition may now be increasingly characterised by overt proximity between militant actors and their state backers

The photograph of Major-General Chris Donahue—the last United States (US) soldier to leave Afghanistan on 30 August 2021—stepping onto the tail ramp of a C-17 Globemaster, flying out of Kabul was as symbolic of the culmination of the US’ two-decade-long ‘Global War on Terror’ (GWOT) as it was of a change in the political tectonics of insurgency. Even as multipolar contestation comes to occupy the space long occupied by counterterrorism within the broader global strategic imagination, insurgency—which shaped GWOT—has come to simply be driven by and influenced by the international strategic environment in which it is now pursued.

The civil war in Myanmar provides a vignette of what insurgency may look like in this new era. Myanmar is already a key region of concern for Indian policymakers. Besides concerns emanating from a shared border, mutual people-to-people ties, and the security repercussions for India’s Northeast at a time when the region is developing into a fulcrum for New Delhi’s Act East policy, New Delhi’s policies are also shaped by the displacement of Pakistan by China within its strategic calculus—the latter being a more active participant within Myanmar’s security landscape, supporting a variety of belligerents including the Junta itself. Tactics and strategies employed by insurgents might, therefore, provide a glimpse into the future of insurgency amid multipolarity—the likely trends that may develop, and how they might help shape the coming global order.

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