Iran is suffering from inflation, currency depreciation and the impact of international sanctions. Will new Western boycotts impact Tehran's ability to wage war?
Iran is suffering from inflation, currency depreciation and the impact of international sanctions. Will new Western boycotts impact Tehran's ability to wage war?

Iran-Israel tensions: Can Iran's economy handle a war?

As the United States and European Union (EU) consider new economic measures against Iran, the Islamic Republic is touting its resilience to Western boycotts. According to the government in Tehran, the country has exported more oil than ever in the last six years, despite massive sanctions imposed byformer US president Donald Trump in 2018.

 

Last month, Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji said oil exports had "generated more than $35 billion [€32.8 billion]" in 2023. The British business daily Financial Times quoted him as saying that while Iran's enemies wanted to stop its exports, "today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts."

To Iran's regime, the billions of dollars in oil revenue are instrumental in maintaining acquiescence at home. Much of the population is suffering the impact of international sanctions, which have led to a depreciation of the national currency, the rial.

Iran's oil sector may not have suffered under the sanctions, but food prices have gone through the roofImage: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Soaring inflation

Iranian inflation reached new heights recently, climbing to about 40% in February. Any exacerbation due to escalating geopolitical tensions will only stoke consumer prices further, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economics professor at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, told DW.

He also noted that the US dollar had gained about 15% against the Iranian rial in recent weeks, amid expectations of heightened conflict with Israel.

"This exchange rate devaluation very quickly translates into higher prices, because Iran imports a lot of types of commodities, and many of the commodities it produces inside Iran also have an import component," the Middle East expert said, adding that the country is "bracing for higher inflation."

According to Salehi-Isfahani, the living standard of Iran's middle class has also steeply declined in recent years, and is now "back to 20 years ago."

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