The strategy must “help Ukraine end the conflict as a democratic, independent, and sovereign country capable of deterring and defending its territory.” This white paper is intended to support the development of such a strategy by defining five key strategic problems: (1) integrating Ukraine into the European economic and transatlantic security order, (2) degrading Russia’s continued ability to bypass sanctions and access capital, (3) combating the resilience of Russian disinformation campaigns, (4) rethinking the arsenal of democracy, and (5) sustaining and strengthening Ukraine’s economy and democracy (Figure 1).
To succeed, the strategy must have bipartisan buy-in and be effectively messaged, both to the congressional committees of jurisdiction as required by statute and to the American people. Absent public support, Russia will win. The Russian regime possesses the key advantage of autocracies: the ability to play the long game, beholden not to the Russian people but rather to its political and military elites. Russian president Vladimir Putin is emboldened by the prospect of waning public support for Ukraine’s fight in the West. Rather than treat this as yet another time-consuming reporting requirement foisted upon overworked officials by Congress, the administration should seize the opportunity to craft a strategy that will lay the foundation for continued support for Ukraine for three to five years.
Long Wars Require Strategic Vision
The optimism that took hold after Ukraine held advancing Russian columns at bay in spring 2023 has given way to the reality of a longer war. The Russo-Ukrainian war is now longer and bloodier than 90 percent of all interstate wars in the last 200 years. Once attritional struggles cross this threshold, they last on average 962 days, or almost three years.[1] And the end is uncertain.
