I recently spent a few weeks traveling between Seoul and Tokyo, participating in several conferences, including the Chosun Ilbo’s Asian Leadership Conference and the Nikkei Forum on “Asia’s Future.” My contributions in both Seoul and Tokyo focused on two key issues: the persistent negative news about North Korea and the increasingly positive developments in the United States-South Korea-Japan trilateral alliance. I address both issues in my recent Foreign Affairs article, “The Coming North Korean Crisis And How Washington Can Prevent It,” and in my new Washington Post article, “This nascent trilateral relationship is the best possible answer to China,” co-written with Max Boot.

On North Korea, much of the discussion at these forums revolved around the possibility of an October surprise by Kim Jong Un before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea's game plan, and Washington’s potential North Korea policy under a Trump administration (with most experts agreeing that a Biden second term would likely maintain the status quo). There were many questions about how our allies should respond.

Experts generally agree on North Korea’s strategy: perfecting its WMD capability with little intention of returning to denuclearization talks. Kim Jong Un has no incentive to negotiate with the United States, especially with his current level of support from China and Russia, allowing him to act with impunity. Even if Kim were inclined to make a deal under a Trump presidency, advancing North Korea’s nuclear program would be a logical step to increase his bargaining leverage, particularly after the humiliation at the Hanoi summit.

Additionally, discussions highlighted concerns over the burgeoning North Korea-Russia alignment, with North Korea shipping weapons to Moscow and the potential for Moscow to provide sensitive technology to North Korea in return. One expert noted that Washington will soon need to prioritize its focus—either on the unrealistic pursuit of denuclearization or on preventing the North Korea-Russia nexus from expanding and improving North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.

The main debate, however, was on what U.S. policy might look like if Trump returns to the White House and on how Washington and Seoul should respond to the North Korean threat. South Korean media extensively covered remarks by Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official in the Trump administration, who argued that U.S. extended nuclear deterrence against North Korea is losing credibility. He suggested that the U.S. military is no longer powerful enough to win multiple wars simultaneously and that addressing issues other than China risks U.S. defeat. His advice to South Korea was to be prepared to defend against North Korea alone or consider developing its own nuclear weapons, as the United States may not provide a viable defense umbrella. These comments, given South Korean perceptions of Colby’s potential role as national security advisor to President Trump, have understandably alarmed South Koreans.

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