The assassination attempt on a Sikh separatist in the United States (US) has become a bone of contention between New Delhi and Washington. It has also led to intelligence agencies of the two countries now sniping at each other. There is a possibility that this issue, if not handled maturely, can create further problems in the bilateral relationship. However, this issue merely represents the symptom, not the cause of problems in India-US ties. If the structural factors pointed to a strong strategic convergence between India and the US, the alleged assassination attempt would have been quietly and quickly dealt with.
It is well-understood that the strategic convergence of India and the US is because of the common threat posed by China. The more the US focuses on Russia or any other adversary and India focuses on Pakistan, the more their strategic convergence weakens. The US focus on Russia is the most damaging factor because the latter is the leading military supplier of India. If the US and Russia are at loggerheads, it weakens Russia’s ability to deliver military supplies to India and it also threatens New Delhi with economic sanctions, should it go ahead with significant military purchases from Russian suppliers. In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, US aid enhances the strength of Ukrainian defence and counteroffensives. Russia, therefore, has had to increase its reliance on China for military and diplomatic support. This has an impact of diminishing Russian autonomy and, consequently, its ability to potentially honour defence agreements with India in case of an India-China conflict. The assumption is that no other country can replace Russia as India’s leading military supplier in the short to medium term—and that should be a reasonable assumption despite India’s ongoing defence indigenisation efforts.
