Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea, June 19, 2024. Sputnik/Vladimir Smirnov/Pool via REUTERS
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea, June 19, 2024. Sputnik/Vladimir Smirnov/Pool via REUTERS

Putin and Kim are creating a crisis—Can the US and China rein them in?

The newly inked Russia-North Korea security pact has spiked anxiety around the world about Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s growing partnership and its implications for the Korean Peninsula, Ukraine, and beyond. 

While some have pointed to the past week’s developments as more evidence of a hardening “alignment of evil” that includes Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran, the reality is that the pact might do more to fracture than solidify any burgeoning axis.

With regional tensions rising, history could very well repeat itself: China could be drawn into a crisis or even a full-blown war on the Korean Peninsula that it has no interest in fighting, be left to clean up the mess given Moscow’s preoccupation in Europe, and suffer major setbacks to its actual priorities as a result.

China’s top objectives for the Korean Peninsula—no crisis or chaos—are actually more in line with the interests of Washington and its allies than with Pyongyang and Moscow. Before a crisis strikes, the United States and China, along with South Korea and other regional stakeholders, should work together to rein in the Putin-Kim collaboration and revamp diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea emboldened

The newly signed Russia-North Korea security pact is deliberately ambiguous by design. The text states that the two sides will provide “military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” if one party falls into a “state of war” due to an “armed invasion” by one or more countries.  This raises the question of what counts as a “state of war” and the threshold that would need to be met for the mutual security clause to be triggered. Furthermore, the type of support to be rendered by either party is left quite open—“military and other assistance” could refer to anything from intelligence sharing to sending troops on the ground.

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