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6/25/2024 11:10:17 AM

Rising global nuclear arsenals and the call for strategic stability

The release of the 2024 Yearbook of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has been widely reported in India but for the wrong reasons. Its chapter on the increase in the types and numbers of nuclear weapons says that it estimates that the Indian nuclear arsenal is now larger than that of Pakistan, i.e., at 172 warheads, it is ahead by just two weapons.

What needs real attention is the report’s observation that there has been a continuing modernisation and growth of arsenals across the globe. There has been a steady increase in nuclear rhetoric by Russia and NATO. The Russians have been rattling the nuclear sabre for a while, and now NATO says that it may need to take out nuclear weapons for storage and put them on standby.

Far more important for India, though is the revelation that perhaps the sharpest growth in both quality and numbers has been in China. Although the Chinese arsenal is smaller than that of the United States (US) and Russia, it is now nearly three times the size of the Indian one.

Nuclear forces of select countries January 2024

	Deployed warheads	Stored warheads	Military stockpile	Total
United States	1,770	1,938	3,708 (retired 1,336)	5,044
Russia	1,710	2,670	4,380 retired 1,200)	5,500
China	24	476	500	500
India	-	172	172	172
Pakistan	-	170	170	170

Source: SIPRIi Yearbook 2034 p.272

SIPRI’s estimate of China’s nuclear arsenal has increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024 and “is expected to keep growing.” China may also now be actually deploying some two dozen warheads on missiles on operational alert at all times. Most of the Chinese warheads, including all of those from Pakistan and India, are stored in a controlled environment.

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