New Horizons in Korea-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Cooperation
Increasing threats and leadership are the two main factors that have propelled trilateral cooperation among Korea, the United States, and Japan in recent years.
The China threat has increased as the balance of power has changed and as China’s behaviors have become more assertive. U.S. leaders now see China as a near-peer competitor and have entered an earnest power competition with it. Most states in Asia, including Korea, perceive an increasing potential threat from China.
Many Asian countries thus want to prepare for the growing potential threat of China by gradually strengthening their cooperation with the United States and forming minilateral groups. Nonetheless, most of these states do not yet perceive an imminent and truly serious military threat from China. Even U.S. leaders do not believe that a conflict with China is imminent, and thus tend to see the competition with China from a long-term perspective.
The North Korean threat is also growing as North Korea makes real progress in nuclear armament. This threat has increased the necessity of trilateral cooperation, especially from the Korean perspective. However, the North Korean threat has been present for many years, and North Korea does not pose a threat to the extent that it makes Korea, the United States, and Japan feel the imperative to cooperate.
These threat factors are important propellants for cooperation now, and they will become even more powerful in the future. However, compared to the Cold War period, the threat factors are not currently strong enough to compel the three countries to overcome all other obstacles to cooperation.
The Camp David process became possible with the Korea-Japan rapprochement. This rapprochement was not just driven by threats; it required the initiative of President Yoon and the reciprocation of Prime Minister Kishida. Since the Cold War ended, Korea and Japan have had a precarious and sometimes rocky relationship, and historical problems in particular became increasingly difficult to deal with. Strong leadership, as found during the tenures of Kim Dae-jung and Obuchi Keijo in the 1990s as well as in the current leadership, has been central to creating a cooperative relationship.
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