Why Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine Now
On September 25, Russian president Vladimir Putin provided insights into changes to Russia’s long-anticipated new nuclear doctrine.
He indicated that the nuclear mission was being “expanded” and outlined numerous changes from the previous 2020 doctrine. While the doctrine itself has yet to be released as a policy document, Putin’s comments come after hints from his allies about the Kremlin’s thinking on nuclear issues—that there exists the “basis for a nuclear war”—and from Russian officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who said in early September that Russia was updating its doctrine in response to Western intervention in the escalating war in Ukraine.
It will be important to check Putin’s comments against the doctrine document, whenever it is released. But the timing of Putin’s remarks and the changes he announced indicate Russia is increasing its reliance on nuclear weapons in an attempt to deter Western assistance to Ukraine. The purpose of the new doctrine may be not only deterrence but also an attempt to divide European allies on the basis of how much risk they are willing to accept in supporting Ukraine.
A Pattern of Nuclear Saber-Rattling
Russia’s most recent nuclear doctrine was the 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. It pointed to the importance of nuclear deterrence for ensuring Russia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” It also outlined four conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons, to include receiving data about an incoming ballistic missile attack; use of nuclear weapons or another weapon of mass destruction against Russia or its allies; attacks on Russian nuclear command, control, and communications infrastructure; and attacks against Russia with conventional weapons that threatened “the very existence” of the Russian state. The doctrine also pointed to the importance of nuclear weapons to prevent “an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies.” This language, along with discourse in Russian defense circles, suggested Russia would rely on its nuclear weapons not only when the survival of the state is at risk, but also when it is already engaged in a conventional fight and seeking to coerce or bully another state into submission.
Since its illegal invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia has implemented this playbook in Ukraine. A CSIS study earlier this year found over 200 cases of Russian leaders referring to nuclear weapons in the context of the war in Ukraine. As the conflict on the ground has escalated, so have Russian nuclear threats. In the past six months alone, Russia has conducted military drills involving tactical nuclear weapons with Belarus, and in an unprecedented move, announced the drills to the Russian public. Additionally, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, and Ryabkov said earlier this month that Russia is “fully ready” to resume testing if necessary. Russia is normalizing a dangerous nuclear discourse.
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