Why Sinwar's Death Matters
Almost a quarter century after 9/11 and the start of what became known as the war on terrorism, there is a well-worn script for the death of a major terrorist: News reports suggest a successful strike, a president or prime minister confirms the killing, there is much public joy over evil's demise, and, finally, experts speculate about the implications of the strike.
States—with enough time and resources—invariably get their men, and the house always wins. In the long run, though, the track record of decapitation is more mixed. New leaders step up, and the wars continue.
Such was the cycle for the pantheon of notorious figures—including al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Islamic State of Iraq emir Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, and, most prominently, al Qaeda leader and 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden. And so far, the fallout from the death of Hamas leader and October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar in Gaza seems to hew closely to this narrative—including a litany of punditry about the implications of Sinwar's demise and initial indications that war will continue for quite some time to come. And so, perhaps, it's unsurprising that most commentators downplayed Sinwar's death, saying some variant of “killing Sinwar changes nothing.”
But that's not entirely true. To be sure, Sinwar's death won't end the Israel-Hamas war, much less the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But it will impact the war and conflict in three profound ways.
While Sinwar's death cannot end the war by itself, it is a necessary condition for bringing it to a close.
First, while Sinwar's death cannot end the war by itself, it is a necessary condition for bringing it to a close. For better or worse, people tend to personalize their wars. World War II is embodied by Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, the Iraq war by Saddam Hussein, 9/11 by Osama bin Laden, and so on. And for many, October 7 is forever linked to the scowling face of Sinwar.
Such personalization may not be entirely warranted. Hamas, after all, is a large and sophisticated organization; according to Israeli authorities, as many as 6,000 operatives had their hands in the atrocities of October 7. But Sinwar, for better or worse, was the public face of the attack. And so, it's hard to imagine Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu—or any other Israeli premier, for that matter—ending the war with Sinwar on the loose, just as it would have been nearly impossible for a U.S. president to declare an end to the global war on terrorism with bin Laden still on the run.
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