Although the United States has had Russia as a maritime neighbor in the Arctic since 1867, the growing presence of China in the region as a Russian partner has led to a rare situation in which two competitive — and potentially hostile — states are in very close proximity to North America.
In this paper, the authors evaluate Russia's and China's activities in the Arctic and these activities' implications for nations with Arctic interests. The authors consider China's decades-long interest in the Arctic, its growing and possible future economic activities, and the existing and proposed collaborations that Beijing has sought with Arctic countries to realize its goals.
The authors propose four scenarios for Sino-Russian relations in the Arctic that represent possible directions for evolution by 2035. Key factors that will shift this evolution in one direction or another include economic and broader geopolitical factors. The authors ultimately conclude that China's attention to the Arctic — in the context of its vastly broader economic security plans — rests on continued regional stability and that whether China engages with other Western Arctic countries may ultimately determine what the real limits are for a Sino-Russian friendship in the Arctic. Western policies that focus on differences between Russia and China may ultimately be more successful in shaping the Arctic's future than those that emphasize their similarities or friendly interactions thus far.
