With the Biden administration giving the green light for Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, the war between Russia and Ukraine is poised to intensify. Washington has permitted Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles which have a range of 300 kilometres (km). Paired to this approval is another shift in Washington’s decision to supply anti-personnel mines as part of new military assistance worth nearly $300 million. Several western embassies have been shut as a significant escalation is expected in the coming days with Russia stockpiling missiles and carrying out its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine in the past three months. Russia has published a decree, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, in a clear warning to Europe and America not to allow longer-range missile strikes on Russian territory. It is hard not to conclude that the outgoing Biden administration’s decision to loosen Ukraine’s use of US and allied supplied missile and weapons are intended to bolster Kyiv’s position on the battlefield before President Biden leaves office. Further, after dithering for several months due to fears of escalation, Washington’s approval of Ukraine’s use of key American-supplied weapons also comes against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s re-election earlier this month as the soon to be 47th President of the US. To some extent, trepidation about the incoming President undercutting and abandoning Ukraine explains Washington’s decision to extend greater military support to Ukraine that the latter had been persistently demanding for nearly three years.
Several western embassies have been shut as a significant escalation is expected in the coming days with Russia stockpiling missiles and carrying out its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine in the past three months.
On the other hand, Washington’s consent to supply these capabilities to Kyiv immediately after a bitterly fought presidential election has resulted in some pushback with Donald Trump Jr — the President-elect’s son — stating that the outgoing President is bent on starting World War III before giving his father a “…chance to create peace and save lives”. Biden’s decision to revise the policy on weapon supplies and use also comes a little late for Kyiv to make concrete military and battlefield gains, which Biden’s Republican critics have highlighted. The problem is not the supply of these capabilities, but the timing which has evoked criticism from Biden’s domestic critics for both political as well as military reasons. Nevertheless, the ATACMS supplied by the US and now being used by Ukraine are a longer-range variant of the missile that America supplied in 2023. Accompanying ATACMS is also the supply of British Storm Shadow and French Scalp air-launched subsonic missiles with a range of roughly 250 km to strike deep Russian static targets. Supplementing these missile capabilities is another change in Biden’s policy clearance for the supply and permission for Ukraine’s use of anti-personnel mines. These missile systems, coupled with the anti-personnel mines, are a shot in the arm for Kyiv. But the key challenge for the Ukrainians following fetters being lifted on the new long-range weapons that they have received is to hold on to their gains in Kursk which they occupied after a surprise attack inside Russia in August. In addition, their task is to prevent the loss of additional territory inside Ukraine. As the Biden administration ceases to be in control of the White House after January 20, 2025, the Ukrainians are compelled to consolidate existing battlefield gains or even recapture lost territory and stall Russian advances westward, which have acquired some momentum and intensity. Although the Russians have made territorial gains in Ukraine over the last few months, they have been mostly limited and incremental, demonstrating that in the ongoing war battle lines have not been easy to shift.
