In 2024, individual Wassenaar member states began implementing their own controls on critical technologies outside the WA. This is the early step toward a new regime. However, translating this idea into an actual regime requires strategic alignment.
Q1: Why focus on Wassenaar minus one?
A1: On September 6, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) introduced a new framework for plurilateral export controls. Central to this framework is a
license exception that allows exports to countries that have equivalent export controls on certain emerging technologies. Assistant Secretary Thea D. Rozman Kendler explained that the reason for a new rule is to “develop and coordinate [U.S.] controls alongside like-minded partners.”
Eleven like-minded countries—nine in Europe, plus Japan and Australia—have already implemented or announced similar export controls for certain emerging technologies, like quantum computing or semiconductors. These countries are eligible for licenses covering 24 controlled technologies, although not every country is eligible for each technology. This is BIS’s first step toward building and recognizing ad hoc agreements with like-minded nations on advanced technologies, potentially laying the foundation for a new approach to multilateral controls.
The need for a new multilateral approach emerged due to the ineffectiveness of the WA. While it remains the only multilateral regime for controlling dual-use technologies (both in civilian and military targets) and continues to set de facto international standards in arms and technology exports, it faces limitations. Its slow decision-making process (requiring unanimity from all 42 members), the lack of strategic measures (with only one plenary meeting per year), and the expulsion mechanism to remove Russia have resulted in protracted delays. Adding a new technology to the Wassenaar control list, for instance, can take up to three years.
