U.S. sanctions on Russian banks are the West's most potent economic threat

 For NATO members, the most powerful measure against Russia were it to invade Ukraine would be U.S. sanctions cutting off Russian state banks from the dollar according to Russian executives, bankers, and former senior U.S. sanctions officials. The United States has warned that Russia could invade as early as this week. Moscow denies it has such plans but says the West needs to take its concerns about NATO expansion seriously. Washington, and its allies in Europe, are finalising an extensive package of sanctions if Russia were to launch an invasion according to U.S. and European officials.  The U.S. package would expand a technology export ban to include any goods made with U.S. components or software, as well as proposed sanctions against specific Russian billionaires. But sanctions experts say more than any other measure, aggressive action against Russia's state banks would hit its economy the hardest. "Banking sanctions are the most impactful measure the U.S. can carry out in the short term," said Brian O'Toole, a former senior advisor to the director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control or OFAC in the U.S. Treasury Department, which designs and manages the implementation of sanctions. Proposed sanctions against Russian banks would bar them from making any transactions in U.S. dollars, essentially freezing any dollar-denominated assets or liabilities held by the banks at home and abroad. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on Wednesday said sanctions against Russian banks would be “unpleasant” and lead to a spike in volatility, but said the state would make sure that all deposits with banks and all transactions, including in foreign currencies, were secured. Russia’s abundant hard currency reserves – now at $635bn – would help shield against the potential blow, he said.

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