Challenges Beyond the Indo-Pacific Test the Limits of the Quad

As tensions mount with China and polarization widens the gap between Beijing and the four members of the Quad, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, India and Japan and the Secretary of State of the United States met in Melbourne on Friday, 11 February 2022, for their Fourth Ministerial meeting, which precedes a larger summit to be held in Japan later this year. The Quad arguably moves toward increased institutionalization as discontent with China grows and diffidence is being increasingly replaced by an outcome oriented approach in the Indo-Pacific region. The timing of the meeting was also consequential as a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine looms, and the Biden administration releases its Indo-Pacific policy. U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned allies that a war in Ukraine could jeopardize Indo-Pacific stability. The meeting also may well have formed the ground for further discussions on bridging the Euro-Atlantic with the Indo-Pacific under the umbrella of the Quad. For India, EAM Jaishankar’s visit to Australia provided a hands-on opportunity to assess the progress as well as expand the spectrum of India-Australia ties by pushing cooperation in more recent areas. As such, discussions ranging from the strengthening of India-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the Foreign Ministers’ Cyber Framework Dialogue (FMCFD) proved important platforms for the implementation of the India-Australia Framework Arrangement on Cyber and Cyber-Enabled Critical Technology Cooperation. The Quad ministerial meeting also represented a microcosm of the broader nuances between member states’ positions on various issues in the Indo-Pacific. A closer look at the issues discussed and outlined positions, both in the Quad meeting as well during the rest of the visit, shows that while each of the four members may have pointed to their own interests as individual countries, as a group, the Quad has made significant progress on reflecting harmony on stated positions and prioritizing shared interests over individual ones—evidence of institutional strengthening in the Quad’s progress. The Quad’s joint statement depicts this maturity particularly through India’s stand on Myanmar, North Korea, and China. While in a separate meeting, Jaishankar laid down India’s unique circumstances than other Quad partners, which he claimed necessitated a more nuanced approach towards Myanmar, yet the joint statement issued by the Quad ministers is unequivocal in demanding humanitarian access and ending arbitrary detention. As of January, more than 2,000 refugees crossed the border from Chin state into the Indian village of Mizoram. Through Myanmar, the Quad has sought to centralise ASEAN’s role by calling on the military regime to urgently implement ASEAN’s five-point consensus and swiftly restore democratization in Myanmar. This depicts the Quad’s greater resolve towards realizing ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific. Behind the obvious attempt to urge a strategic role for ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific, Quad members seek a decisive participation of the group in matters of the Indo-Pacific, including the South and East China Seas and comes on the back of several circumventions by ASEAN on matters where China is concerned.

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