Ukraine events bring urgency to ASEAN and Quad agenda

The new world order has been born in Ukraine. It was a multi-year gestation in which the rules that kept the world mostly at peace have been whittled away in places like Iraq and the South China Sea. Might-makes-right is back in fashion, as it has mostly been since Thucydides wrote “Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. The non-allied nations of the world, including those that are not economically resilient to global geopolitics, must play the new hand they have been dealt. Australia and its Quad/AUKUS partners should help these third nations maintain their sovereignty. The official statements which came out of the recent Quad meeting in Melbourne left no doubt that standing up to and competing with the PRC remains the key motivating factor behind the grouping. But perhaps most significant of all was the considerable emphasis placed on working with other nations in the region, and especially ASEAN, to help them build “resilience” against pressure from China. As Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said in her post-Quad press conference: “We continue to support the centrality of ASEAN, including to advance practical implementation of ASEAN’s outlook on the Indo-Pacific”. This, combined with statements in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy document released on February 11, and upcoming Indo-Pacific Economic Framework from the US both make clear that working with Indo-Pacific nations is a key part of the overall strategy for the US and its Quad partners. These renewed promises of co-operation, especially economic co-operation, is an opportunity and a challenge for ASEAN and its member states. They should challenge the Quad to make good on its promises by clearly stating those areas that it wants such co-operation, including specific infrastructure projects.

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